From The Edge's article: Earnings growth anticipation heats up at QL Resources, I would like to highlight the following points to ponder:
1. Its present share price has already surpassed the 12-month consensus target price of RM 7.52 (based on Bloomberg data). It implied that the market growth rate was an approximately 21% and the analysts had the same consensus that QL Resources could continue to grow the businesses by double-digit year-on-year (y-o-y).
2. If QL Resources can register double-digit y-o-y profit growth of 15% to 20%...it'll be enough to justify its valuation. If assuming the growth of 15% and 20% respectively, it derives the calculated price of RM 5.69 (PE 38.50, PEG 2.57) and RM 7.16 (PE 48.50, PEG 2.43) respectively.
3. Some investors are buying the stock on the possibility that QL would spin off the subsidiary that houses its Family Mart franchise business for listing. It's the market expectation.
4. QL Resources has been deemed as sustainable staple-based food and generally recession-proof. It's the market perception.
5. AffinHwang Capital expects Family Mart to post its maiden earnings contribution to QL:
FY20: Estimated pretax earnings of RM 24 million
FY21: Estimated pretax earnings of RM 42 million
FY22: Estimated pretax earnings of RM 77 million
For your information, QL's subsidiary, Maxincome Resources Sdn. Bhd. [199601010973 (383322-D)] which runs the Family Mart convenience business. As at 31st March 2018, it registered an operating loss of RM 7,111,561 on the back of its revenue of RM 75,158,046 (source: CTOS). On 28th August 2018, it had opened 59 outlets if deriving from this, its revenue would be RM 1.274 million per store.
6. AffinHwang Capital puts a 'buy' call with a higher target price of RM 9.30 (from RM 8.50 previously). According to AffinHwang Capital's target price of RM 9.30, it implies a market growth rate of an approximately 27% (PE 62.50, PEG 2.31 but the industry PE 24.90). Does it make sense?
In conclusion, I have nothing to add...
